Sometimes there is a need to highlight events that reflect lack of transformation. On September 29th, Afghanistan’s President Ghani signed a deal to welcome back Gulbaddin Hekmatyar, infamously known as the Butcher of Kabul, the head of Hizb-ul-Islam, a man on the list of the most violent. The purpose of the agreement is to stop him from launching attacks on the Center. One should swallow a bitter pill once in awhile to cure a lengthy illness but in this case, the deal reveals an ongoing malaise that won’t leave Afghanistan, its unfortunate people, and an international community that occasionally shows that it doesn’t give a damn.
Hekmatyar is one of several people who are responsible for the death and displacement of thousands of Afghans in the past four decades. He participated in destruction of Kabul in the 1990s. Then, was provided a powerful opportunity to bring stability in 1993 when he became the PM, but that didn’t stop him or the other mujahedeen /warlords from lobbing bombs at each other and the populace. In fact, few weary Afghans welcomed Taliban due to the infighting, hoping for an opportunity to go find food without getting killed. Ironically, this deal is part of a strategy to contain Taliban.
The US State Dept. approved the deal under certain conditions as a step towards stabilization since Hekmatyar fights with anyone seeking to consolidate power at the center. His hideouts are in Pakistan or Iran or Afghanistan or in grey zones that fall in between. Power sharing is not a bad way to stabilize regions. A piece of the power pie often brings people into the fold. Such deals were also made with warlords such as General Dostum and Abdul Rasul Sayyaf, etc. Hekmatyar asks for a township in order to bring back his Pashtuns (versus other Pashtuns) living in a refugee camps he controls, and he wants his name removed from the great terrorist list compiled by the US.
While some members of the international community are trying to get their heads around the deal, others are okay with it. Pakistan thinks this is a good idea, which is not a surprise as they were the ones who backed him and his mujahedeen in a fight against the Soviet Union, with the resources provided by the CIA. It was an opportunity to expand its influence into Afghanistan. Hekmatyar is deeply anti-India as well. Pakistan’s motivations remain the same, but now there is an added benefit of Hekmatyar's departurePakistanis are tired of hosting Afghans. He also wants to take a bunch of people with him. As for India, it is busy with Kashmir and will remain so.
How does an average Afghan feel about this? The civil society is quite stunned actually, because after all he is the butcher. The big question then is what is this going to achieve? The man is 69 and while he controls a faction and has attempted to form an alliance with ISIS, his demands may just mean he is looking for a place to retire where he can suck up Afghani resources. However, this doesn’t necessarily stop those he inspires from challenging the state. Splinter groups will continue based on who is left out of the latest power equation. He could also change his mind if he doesn’t get what he wants. One thing is for sure, while the ruling authorities might get a nod of approval from some radicals, they will undermine the bit of trust they have with the civil society not looking to be ruled by killers. They are perhaps looking for some justice, weak as it may be. And what about the American approval of this deal? Or is this a sign that they are done as they were in the 1990s, leaving behind safe havens for whomever? Is this deal worth the effort?