writer: Annemarie Baylouny
For years, whenever anyone would mention “puppet” regarding Lebanon, it was assumed they were talking about Hizbullah being Iran’s stooge. And then some knowledgeable analysts would remind people that there were actually two major power brokers in Lebanon; there was also Saudi Arabia. The Hariris are tied to Saudi and have funded extremely conservative Islamists in the past. By “kidnapping” Saad Hariri this month, some say Saudi showed their hand and it backfired. Or has it? He is now back home and has more support than ever. The Lebanese masses, who are usually deeply divided over their leadership, now welcome him home as a returned hero.
When Saad abruptly resigned his post as Lebanon’s Prime Minister early in November, Lebanese did not know what to think, and wondered what it meant – they expected that this could mean war or at least a skirmish. Then information came out that Hariri was taken at gunpoint upon landing in Saudi, instead of his assumed short visit to that country where his wife and children live, even with his strange resignation speech related to Iranian power. The situation became more confused, as Hariri left Saudi for France, then Egypt, gave contradictory interviews, declared he was free to move around, then returned to Lebanon to vast celebrations, and promptly reversed his resignation – all in the span of two weeks while the Lebanese waited to see the fate of their Prime Minister, and thus, the fate of their country’s peace.
The Lebanese remain convinced he was hostage – and by holding Hariri hostage, Saudis made overt what previously was most obvious only for Hizbullah: Saudi feels that Lebanon should do its bidding. Instead of a condemnation of Hizbullah and Iran, Lebanese saw a Saudi prince purging and consolidating power, then attempting to spread his dictates to Lebanon.
In the background, Hariri’s fortunes – both political and economic – had been waning for some time. His company and economic assets are in trouble, and his net worth is a fraction of what it was. He has been publicly disrespected and considered a has-been; water bottles are thrown at him at demonstrations. Elites in the Sunni community smelled blood in the water lately due to the demise of their community leader, and have been scrambling to become the new power brokers for the Sunnis. Despite that, thanks to the Saudis, Hariri is now Mr. Lebanon, as his father had been. Saudi’s taking of the Prime Minister made him a symbol of national resistance with Lebanese universally demanding his return.
Saudi’s move failed, but what else did it do? Did it strengthen the power of Iran and decrease the narratives of Iran as the region’s grand evil, or restore a man who is pro-Saudi? Does this move show a country and Prince out of control, or sophisticated chess? After all, he did allow women to drive and the world swooned. The strange reversal of Saad Hariri’s fate will be fodder for conspiracy theorists, as his position is now solidified.
Behind these moves is the change in the U.S. position in the Middle East. There has been a sea of change in the Middle East’s global power considerations. Leaders in the Middle East now believe the U.S. is no longer the power broker – that Russia is, and that Russia has no qualms with much of what they do. Countries discount U.S.’s priorities, wondering only about Russia, figuring out how to do business with Russia, making trips to Moscow, etc. Officials and connected elites talk about Russia as they used to speak about the U.S.: as the power to deal with. This shift in thinking is significant. For Syria, it is a bit of a déjà vu, taking them back to the old Soviet days; for the others, this change is as significant as the fall of the Soviet Union.
The Saudis see the removal of America as an opportunity to assert power. The American administration echoes Saudi’s insistence that Iran is the main problem in the region. Notwithstanding Tillerson’s statement of protest to the Saudi moves, the U.S. has not objected to any moves by regional power in the Trump administration. No checks to the war in Yemen, which has wrought devastation, cholera and now famine on the populace. No tough stand on the Saudis has been forthcoming – despite expectations for this given campaign speeches by then-candidate Trump.
For Lebanese, this is not their first rodeo: they have been around the wheel of foreign power many times. Lebanese have been subject to Israeli bombings devastating their country numerous times. They were occupied by Syria. More recently, there was a wave of assassinations seemingly intended to draw them into Syria’s civil war or renew the Lebanese civil war. They lived without a president for years, and without a budget for over a decade. And they respond with unity. Saudi power is more complicated, as some Sunnis may side with the Saudis. Yet, Lebanese also widely consider themselves superior to their neighbors, and their opinions of the tribal monarchies border on racism.
The real danger for Lebanon is the economic weapon. If Saudi decides to boycott Lebanon as it did Qatar, the effect will be more severe. But like an earlier threat by the U.S. to stop funding Lebanon’s military, the likely result would be Iran offering to step in financially. Instead of combatting Iran, Saudi’s not-so-subtle power grab would enhance its rival’s reach.
Violations of national sovereignty are nothing new for Lebanese, who usually recognize these moves for what they are. Lebanese resilience is a much-touted phrase, belying much passivity and maintenance of the status quo. But it does point to a key facet of Lebanese society – they have staying power. The Lebanese military, the most respected institution in the country, operates along a “Lebanon for all the Lebanese” paradigm, refusing to act unilaterally on behalf of any one sect or faction. It has learned from mistakes in the civil war, and is now a different institution. They have stood up to Israel, Hizbullah, and the US. The Saudis do not stand a chance.