writer: Anshu N. Chatterjee
This week Kim Jung-un promised a thousand-fold retaliation for UN’s sanctions against his country. Given his nuclear arsenal, it is a worrying thought for all, and specifically for those in Guam. Now we know how the South Koreans feel. This past year, the North Koreans have vigorously tested Hwasong-14, their long range ballistic missile, and in the process, undermined the UN regime and the non-proliferation treaty or at least what was left of it after India and Pakistan tested their bombs in 1998. The latter of the two, by the way, was accomplished with the American and Chinese aid and approval.
Yesterday, President Trump responded with the promise of fire and fury. Should we still be scared? Absolutely, it's finally happened! The bombs are in the hands of maniacs. While the Americans are busy trying to prevent informal states such as Al Qaeda et. al. from taking over oil fields of the world, two very legitimate, national governments threaten to initiate a nuclear war. For a rational madman, Guam is a good choice to begin this. It is a small place and it is far away enough from anywhere. Only our oceans will be damaged for centuries, maybe forever: a limited nuclear strike in the game of chicken strategy. Yes, we may have a perfect storm. Where is George Clooney when you need him?
And some guy on CNN asked if this meant the terrorists will get hold of the bomb soon?
On the other hand, according to the nuclear deterrence theory, there is nothing to worry about. Fear of being bombed stops countries with bombs from using a bomb. With some exceptions, a leader might think his regime is under threat and in that case, he may launch a preemptive strike. Kim Jong-un might be feeling that way these days, despite Rex’s reassurance last week that his regime is not threatened, even though they really do keep on trying to finish him off. Through UN sanctions, for example. President Trump might be feeling a bit threatened too with an increasing power of China and Russia, Middle East out of control, over-extended military, and Pence thinking of running for President. And those NYT’s people and also possibly the Republican Party itself, none of them can be trusted. The sort-of-lefty Democrats are the least of his worries.
Then there are the Chinese who can pretty much do what they want because they are rich enough to do so and have enough weapons. The leadership continues to support Kim as a parent who loves his rebellious son. This may be strategic as North Korea is its only ally in the region confronting Japan, S. Korea and Russia. Or maybe it feels like a parent of a little emperor. Very Asian if you ask me. But remember, North Korea received its technology from Pakistan who got it from China just a decade earlier, so why the surprise at the lack of China’s initiative or success in controlling Kim; two of its satellite states exchanged technology that it provided. Maybe China is fine with Kim’s bomb and missiles that can deliver the bomb. China is also currently flexing its muscle in the disputed territories in the north-east of India because it can do what it wants. They have some serious bombs and also a hell of lot of people. But so does India with its hawkish leadership. Again, a perfect storm in the making if the Pakistani military gets bored, and decides to overthrow Nawaz.
Source: The Economist obviously
But we do need to laugh a bit, so let’s make some fun of the leadership: General Kim Jong-un has a funny hair-cut and is considered to be a battle hardened general although it isn’t clear which battle unless it is a reference to the one against his own people. President Trump has a funny haircut too, and his supporters think he speaks the language Kim understands and how do they know this? Because they all speak Korean apparently. President Putin loves shirtless pics. President Xi bows to everyone but he really doesn’t mean it. And what is this need to protect Europe from outsiders? Remember what they did to rest of the world? But that is not funny; what is funny is some Iranians still think Americans are British stooges or perhaps, now Saudi stooges. PM Modi gains power every day; funny story about how only BJP can speak for India's minorities and no one else can, even the minorities themselves. Some irony in all this.
